MLB Baseball Betting
American League games highlight Tuesday MLB betting
2010-09-14
Two marquees MLB match-ups highlight Sportsbook.com’s baseball betting board tonight. The Yankees and Rays continue their three-game series after giving us a taste of the postseason in Monday night’s 1-0 Tampa Bay win. With the victory, the Rays are now in first place in the East. Meanwhile, the White Sox have an opportunity to cut into Minnesota’s six-game Central lead as the two teams open a three-game set on Chicago’s South Side.
Yankees @ Rays
Sportsbook.com Line: Tampa Bay -148, New York +138 Total: 9
The Yankees hope their time as a second-place team will be short-lived as they meet the Rays in the middle game of their three-game series at the Trop. Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.92 ERA) makes just his fifth start of the season but has been a welcome addition to the Yankee rotation. Even though he has only one win, Nova has yet to give up more than three runs in any start and the Yankees are 3-1 in his four starts this year.
Tampa Bay counters with Matt Garza (14-8, 3.68 ERA). Garza has been sensational at home this year, going 7-2 with a 3.27 ERA in 13 games. He’s coming off a tough outing in Boston that saw him give up six runs on four Red Sox home runs. Garza had won his previous three decisions and the Rays had won his previous four starts. However, the Yankees aren’t exactly the team he wants to see. While Garza totes a respectable 3.62 ERA in nine starts against New York, Tampa Bay is just 1-8 in those games, including seven straight losses.
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record, in September games.
(136-113 over the last 5 seasons.) (54.6%, +68 units. Rating = 3*).
Twins @ White Sox
Sportsbook.com Line: Chicago -110, Minnesota EVEN Total: 7.5
Time is quickly running out for the White Sox to make a final playoff push. If they want to see October, they’ll have to make up six games on the Twins over the final three weeks of the season. Step one would be a win Tuesday night when John Danks (13-10, 3.54 ERA) takes the mound opposite Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24 ERA).
Danks took the loss last time out against Detroit, giving up five runs (two earned) on eight hits in six innings. The southpaw has struggled lately going 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. In 18 career starts against the Twins, Danks is 6-6 with an ERA of 5.05.
On the other hand, Liriano has been sensational recently, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts. He hasn’t lost since July 9 and has won his last seven decisions. The Twins have had tremendous success with Liriano on the hill, winning his last five starts and nine of his last 10. He’s encountered some trouble with the White Sox, however. In seven career starts against Chicago, Liriano is just 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA.
Play Against - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(78-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +40.1 units. Rating = 3*).
To view more key MLB betting trends and to wager on the games, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
MLB: Big battle in the Bronx2010-05-19There’s little doubt that the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees have established themselves as the top teams in the AL East, the division New York reclaimed last year after the Rays won it in 2008. They also appear to be the two best clubs in baseball. Tampa Bay can bolster its early lead on the Yankees and extend its latest winning streak to five on Wednesday night, but to do so the Rays will need to end a string of six straight losses in the Bronx. They’ll also need to overcome an underdog line of +145 according to Sportsbook.com.
New York (25-14, +5.6 units) has begun defense of its World Series title in strong fashion only to be overshadowed by the Rays, who are the only team in the majors with a better record.
Tampa Bay (28-11, +10.4) dropped two of three to the Yankees at home from April 9-11, but manager Joe Maddon’s team - already with a three-game lead - has a chance to make a statement in New York before beginning interleague play. “It’s going to be fun going up there, as it should be,” said Maddon, whose team has gone 15-4 (+10.5) on the road in 2010 but was outscored 31-12 while losing its last six in the Bronx last season.
“You want to be on the top. You want to play the best teams. You want to play in the best division. I think it’s great,” Maddon added. “Our guys will be ready for it. Our game’s a pretty good game right now. We haven’t hit to our potential yet, but we’ve been doing everything else.”
Brilliant pitching has been the foundation of the majors’ best start since Boston was 28-11 in 2002. David Price and four relievers held Cleveland to six hits in a 6-2 win Tuesday, lowering Tampa Bay’s team ERA to 2.69 - the best in the AL and they are 37-16 after allowing two runs or less.
Wade Davis (3-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.325 WHIP) has played a role, although the rookie will be trying to avoid a third straight loss. He has held Oakland and Seattle to three runs each in his last two starts, but has gotten minimal run support in that stretch. For those interested in sports betting, Tampa Bay is just is 5-19 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per contest over the last two seasons.
Davis has yet to pitch at Yankee Stadium, but New York has already beaten him twice in St. Petersburg, with Davis posting a 5.73 ERA in the two outings. “I just want us to play the same kind of game we’ve been playing to this point,” Maddon said. “I don’t like to say: `We’re playing the Yankees, you’ve got to play a better game.’”
The Rays, however, have had major problems figuring out the Yankees’ scheduled starter. A.J. Burnett has won four straight starts against Tampa Bay and is 6-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last seven. He held the Rays to two runs in seven innings of a 7-3 win April 11. Burnett (4-1, 3.31, 1.355) did not factor in the decision Friday night against Minnesota, although he worked 6 2/3 innings and allowed three runs - two earned - in an 8-4 win.
The banged-up Yankees will try to regroup quickly after squandering a 5-0 lead in Tuesday’s 7-6 home loss to Boston, with Mariano Rivera allowing a go-ahead hit for the second straight outing. New York fell to 13-4 (+6.4) at Yankee Stadium and will now try to avoid its first back-to-back losses at home and is 73-44 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better since 2008.
Sportsbook.com has New York as -155 money line favorites with total at Ov9. The Yankees are 38-12 in the Bronx playing against a team with a winning record and 41-11 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5. They are 13-4 OVER when their bullpen is struggling with ERA over 7.00 in the last five games.
Tampa Bay has been terrific in the visitor’s role and is 12-2 away from home after a win this season. The biggest concern is putting together enough hits and they are 6-17 in road outings after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span. Since last year the Rays are 11-2 UNDER as a road underdog of +125 to +150.
This is the ESPN Wednesday night contest which has a 7:05 Eastern start and New York has won 12 of previous 18 against Tampa Bay in the pinstripes.
The StatFox Power Line shows New York should only be priced at -105.
MLB: Betting Baseball Umpire Report2009-07-08In searching thru various forums, I will come across enough baseball bettors, who place real value on who is calling balls and strikes. Though this is often an overlooked aspect of sports wagering, much like meaningful trends, it is foolish not to consider, especially when extreme cases are involved. Much like all but washed-up Mike Hampton of Houston having 14-3 career record against Pittsburgh, including four of his five wins this season; it pays to know all the little oddities that surround baseball to have fuller understanding of winning wagers.
The home plate umpire can and does have a direct impact on every game they call. How often do you see the frustrated batter or pitcher either saying something or emitting body language that you understand as the observer they believed the person with the chest protector missed a call?
Commissioner Bud Selig has unified the umpires, eliminating the way American League and National League umps called games and placed them on higher alert by monitoring their games with special cameras to grade them on regular basis. Though this generally has brought the disparity between the league’s closer together, without question, certain men in blue call the game differently and players have to adjust.
For sports bettors, the greatest influence an umpire can have is on the total. Though the strike-zone is supposed to be uniform, much like pass interference in football, different people have differing views as to what they see. For the sake simplicity and accuracy, we only looked at adjudicators that have called balls and strikes for a minimum of 12 games in 2009. Here are the top UNDER umpires this season to date.
1) Andy Fletcher 13-3-2
2) Scott Barry 13-4-1
3) Brian Gorman 12-4-1
4) Fieldin Culbreth 11-4-1
5) Bill Miller 13-5
Collectively, this contingent is 45.5 units Under in the 67 games they crouched behind the catcher. In most cases, one umpire stands out for his method of calling games and Bill Miller would be the one in this group. Miller has a broader strike zone than most mediators, making him a pitchers delight behind the dish. He ranks eighth in fewest walks allowed (5.9) per game and is second in punch-outs at 15.7 per contest, among the 69 umpires that have called a dozen or more games looking in the pitchers eye.
If you happen to be attending or being able to watch a ballgame, in which our next collection of arbiters is involved behind the plate, make sure you three or more hours, since this will likely be the length of time needed to complete nine innings of baseball.
Here is the Top 5 OVER umps as baseball approaches the All-Star break.
1) Tim McClelland 12-5-2
2) Eric Cooper 12-5
3) Randy Marsh 11-5-1
4) Jim Reynolds 8-4
5) Jerry Meals 11-6-1
As you can see, this assemblage is not as one-sided in viewpoint of what they are calling as their fellow brethren in blue. This collection is 46-25 (26.4 units) Over, for a 64.7 percentage. Compare that to the Top 5 umpires who call more strikes and force hitters to have wider and longer strike zones. That collection of umps is 62-20 Under, 75.6 percent.
Most pitchers cringe at the thought of Randy Marsh behind the plate, knowing they have to get more of the plate to get strikes rung up, since he is sixth in most walks called at 8.3 per game (same as McClellend) and registers the fewest strikeouts (11.8) among all plate moderators.
It is probably not a wise choice to pick a total based on an umpire alone, but a fool and his money are soon to part if one isn’t knowledgeable who is calling ball and strikes. Remember this the next time you go to a game and hear the words bellow out, “Come on blue, get your head in the game.”
MLB: Yankees Favored to Open Big Series2008-08-26The final regular season series ever at Yankees Stadium between New York and Boston commences Tuesday night. If the Bronx Bombers have any aspirations of still making a push towards the 2008 postseason, they’ll need to play their best series of the year. As a small favorite in Game 1 of the 3-game set, the Yanks will send Andy Pettitte to the hill to face off against Tim Wakefield. Over 90% of the early action at Sportsbook.com backs the hosts.
If there were ever a time to exercise ghosts from the past, now would be the perfect time for the New York Yankees. With Yankee Stadium wilting down to a few precious weeks before the final game is played at the famous ball park, maybe this would be the week to hang pictures throughout the stadium with Boston in town. Maybe banners with Bucky Dent’s face, Reggie Jackson, Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle plastered all over the place, to remind the Red Sox there is a reason why they have won only 37 percent of the time at Yankee Stadium over the last 85 years. With what is at stake for New York, it’s time to use every trick in the book.
The Yankees trail Boston by five games for the wild card spot and have to win a minimum of two games in this series to realistically hold on to any chance of snagging last postseason berth in the American League, with just over a month to go. Despite a mastery over the Red Sox for years, the magic ended when New York lost four straight in the 2004 ALCS to Boston. The Red Sox have gone on to win two World Series since then and the Bronx Bombers have lost four consecutive playoff series. For New York, this season it’s about just trying to extend 13-year run of October baseball.
“I feel like it’s a must-win series,” Andy Pettitte (13-9, 4.17, 1.344 WHIP) told the team’s official Web site. “I don’t necessarily feel like we need to sweep them, but I feel like we need to win the series.” Pettitte has a long history of success against the BoSox and is opening game starter. In the last 11 years, the left-hander is 16-7 versus Boston and his team has won 19 of his 28 starts. Sportsbook.com has New York as -155 money line home favorites and with total Un9.5. Since 1997, Pettitte and the teams he has pitched for are 52-18 as a home favorite of -150 to -200.
Boston will go for two virtual eliminations in a row, having taken down Toronto on the road, all but closing out what chances they had left and will try to do the same to the Yanks. You have to love managers like Terry Francona, who so desperately try to keep everything on even keel, even when they understand what is at stake. He knows this is big series and is trying to sell it like his club is playing Seattle this week, just with more people in the stands. “Because of the media and the fans, there’s more energy or electricity in the ballpark, but you can’t bring in a pitcher an inning earlier,” Francona said. “They don’t give you two wins when you beat the Yankees.”
Thanks for insightful information T.F., here is something that is useful for baseball bettors, Boston is 21-8 in road games when playing with a day off over the last three seasons. Tim Wakefield (7-8, 3.67, 1.177) will make first start since coming off the disabled list and has one win in last 11 starts (Boston 2-9) against the team in pinstripes. Another factor working against the knuckle-baller and his club is they have combined to produce 4-12 record against teams with winning record the last two seasons and are 0-8 in this situation if it occurs in the second portion of the season.
The total does cause confusion as to what way is best to wager. With Pettitte on the hill, manager Joe Girardi’s club is 17-5 Under. Boston is 16-5 Under as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 2006, when giving Wakefield the starting assignment. Just when this seems so cut and dry, you realize New York is 16-3 Over off two straight road wins against AL East rival over the last three years.
This heavyweight encounter can be viewed in local markets or on MLB.TV starting at 7:05 Eastern. These teams have split a dozen meetings in 2008.
StatFox Power Line – Yankees -114
Thursday Night MLB Series Wrap-ups2008-07-10Often referred to as getaway day in baseball, Thursday’s normally offer an array of afternoon and evening encounters in the big leagues. Today we’ll focus our attention on night-time action as the team’s wrap-up series before getting ready for the next opponent.
L.A. Angels at Texas
Angels manager Mike Scioscia is known for keeping his demeanor on an even keel, however no former player, manager or whoever sleeps very well after seeing team lose with two outs in the bottom of the ninth on a walk-off home run. The gut-wrenching loss is made all the worse knowing Francisco Rodriguez, who leads the league in saves, served it up to Josh Hamilton, who is having dream season from remarkable recovery. The losses the last two nights by the Halos have to sting a little more since in both cases, they were held in check to lose by first major league starters for Texas.
Los Angeles will turn to their best starter John Lackey (6-2, 1.93, 0.924 WHIP) to even this four game series. Lackey has been spectacular after starting the year on the DL and is 26-9 against the money line after a loss over the last two seasons. (Halos Record) After slow start that had many wondering about manager Ron Washington continued employment in Texas, the Rangers have become formidable foe, even with patchwork pitching staff. Texas has taken advantage of the Angels lack of hitting and is 20-11 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
Sportsbook.com has the Rangers as +135 home underdogs, with total ay U9.5. The Angels might be 28-13 after two or more consecutive losses, yet it is not wise to give up on Texas who can hit and is 34-22 (+17.1 Units) in home games off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog.
Arizona at Washington
This is an important contest for the Arizona Diamondbacks, now tied for first place in the NL West. With the D-Backs and the Dodgers owning the same record and having 71 games left in the regular season, Arizona would not enjoy the thought of losing the division by a game or two, knowing they lost two series to the Washington Nationals. Dan Haren (8-5, 2.83, 0.977 WHIP) will try to place the Snakes in position to win this road series and square up season series with the Nats. Arizona’s failures are traced to lack of offense scoring more than four runs three times in last 19 games. No wonder the D-Backs are 3-10 in road games after three or more consecutive Unders this season.
The posted total is Un7.5, which makes a lot of sense. Haren has a baseball best 1.50 ERA since June 1 and despite Washington’s Jason Bergmann sporting a 1-6 record, he has a 1.73 ERA in last four starts. Take into consideration Arizona is 12-3 UNDER in road games after scoring four runs or less three straight games in 2008 and the Nationals are 24-10 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
Chicago at Kansas City
Kansas City is finding out two things playing the White Sox this week, they never quit and the Royals bullpen stinks like…manure (close one). Chicago battled back from five runs down for a 7-6 win over Kansas City on Wednesday, one day after rallying from an early three-run hole for an 8-7, 13-inning victory. All-Star left fielder Carlos Quentin hit a pair of two-run homers Wednesday, then scored the go-ahead run on an eighth-inning balk to lead the White Sox to their 11th win in 13 contests. Mark Buehrle (6-7, 3.91, 1.346 WHIP) will take the ball for the Pale Hose, who look to continue dominance of Kansas City, seeking 6-0 start versus AL Central foe.
Zack Grienke (7-5, 3.62, 1.274 WHIP) takes the pill for the Royals at Kauffman Stadium where he is 3-0, with 2.57 ERA. K.C. has won five of his six starts at home, nevertheless is up against terrible trend that has them at 2-15 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season. Though this contest is listed as a “Pick” at press time, it doesn’t feel like it, with Buehrle and the White Sox having won 12 of their last 14 contests against the Royals.